I have been urging people to prepare for a harder stretch ahead. Based on the converging factors I am tracking, I believe a much larger scale of preparation is needed. For this issue alone, the fertilizer emergency, I lay out the bare minimum every household should already be doing further down in this piece.
On June 29, 2026, President Donald Trump signed a document that treated phosphate fertilizer as a threat to national security. The document used a law from 1930 that is normally reserved for importing food and medicine during disasters. For the next eight months, phosphate fertilizer from Morocco will enter the United States without tariffs. The White House says the move will cut fertilizer prices by about 22 percent and save farmers roughly $1.82 billion across more than 100,000 farms and 97 million acres.
That sounds like a farm issue. Fertilizer is not a farm issue. Fertilizer is the reason grocery stores have food. Without fertilizer, corn yields drop. Wheat yields drop. Soybean yields drop. When yields drop, there is less food. When there is less food, prices go up. If the shortage is bad enough, shelves go empty.
The emergency declaration happened because the global fertilizer market broke four months ago. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz closed. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 30 percent of all internationally traded fertilizer. Shipping traffic collapsed from about 130 vessels per day to single digits. Vessels are still being attacked. The Ever Lovely was struck on June 25. The Kiku was hit on June 27. The CMA CGM San Antonio was hit on May 5. The MV Barakah was hit on May 4.
When the Strait of Hormuz closed, fertilizer prices spiked. Urea went from roughly $450 per ton to above $850 per ton by April. The June 17 ceasefire deal between the United States and Iran briefly opened two corridors and prices crashed back to $350 per ton by June 22. Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz on June 20. The price crash was temporary. Farmers who need phosphate for fall planting will face a much tighter market than farmers buying urea.
The Morocco tariff suspension is a band-aid on a wound that American policy created. In 2020, a company called Mosaic petitioned the government to put tariffs on Moroccan and Russian phosphate. Mosaic makes about 75 percent of the phosphate fertilizer manufactured in the United States. The Commerce Department put a 19.97 percent duty on Moroccan fertilizer in 2021. A review lowered the duty to 2.12 percent in 2023. Another review raised the duty back to 16.81 percent in November 2024. Moroccan imports to the United States dropped from about 2 million metric tons to nearly zero.
A Texas A&M study found the Moroccan and Russian phosphate tariffs cost American farmers $6.9 billion between 2021 and 2025. Corn growers lost $3 billion. Wheat growers lost nearly $1 billion. The National Association of Wheat Growers estimated wheat growers alone lost $966 million. In May 2026, Mosaic announced the company would cut production by about half at two major plants because sulfuric acid costs had surged. Mosaic CEO Bruce Bodine said there is not going to be enough phosphate to meet global demand.
China also stopped exporting phosphate fertilizers on March 19, 2026. The Chinese zero-export policy runs through August 31. Major Chinese producers diverted roughly 400,000 to 500,000 metric tons back into the Chinese domestic market.
The fertilizer shortage is hitting at the worst possible moment. The 2026 winter wheat crop came in at 1.029 billion bushels. The 1.029 billion bushels represent the smallest harvest since 1965. The crop is down about 27 percent from last year. Hard red winter wheat, the kind grown across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, hit its lowest level since 1957. About 36 percent of planted wheat will never be harvested. In Nebraska, 83 percent of the wheat crop is rated very poor to poor. In Colorado, 73 percent. In Kansas, 55 percent.
Corn and soybeans look better in early reports, but the critical growing period is still ahead. Corn needs peak water and nutrients around the silking stage, roughly 55 to 60 days after emergence. If heat and drought hit during the silking window, yields will fall regardless of how good the crop looks now.
Farmers are already broke. The fourth consecutive year of industry-wide losses is underway. The median farm household income is negative $1,161. Wheat sells for about $5.00 per bushel. Wheat costs $7.96 to grow. Corn sells for about $4.20. Corn costs $5.00 to grow. Soybeans sell for about $10.30. Soybeans cost $12.27 to grow. More than 90 percent of farmers say their financial conditions have worsened or stayed the same since last year.
H5N1 avian influenza continues to spread through U.S. dairy herds. More than 1,000 herds across at least 17 states have been infected since the outbreak began in March 2024. The virus spreads through milk. Infected cows produce less milk. The culling rate is low, but the economic damage to dairy operations is real.
Here is why all of this matters to you even if you have never been on a farm.
Grocery stores in the United States operate on just-in-time inventory. Grocery stores do not keep warehouses full of food. Grocery stores get shipments based on what scanned at the register yesterday. In 2022, one baby formula plant closed and shelves went empty nationwide. The convergence of fertilizer shortage, crop failure, livestock disease, and shipping disruption involves multiple simultaneous failures across those systems.
Four companies control roughly 80 to 85 percent of beef processing in the United States. When COVID hit meatpacking plants in 2020, daily capacity fell by about 45 percent. President Trump had to invoke the Defense Production Act to keep plants open. High corporate concentration exists across the rest of the food system too.
Grain storage is already full. On-farm and off-farm storage capacity has not grown. The grain storage system cannot absorb a bad harvest by drawing down reserves. There is no buffer.
The United States imports about 60 percent of its fruits and nuts, 40 percent of its vegetables, and more than 70 percent of its seafood. If domestic crops fail and global supply is also tight, the United States cannot import its way out of the problem.
There is a time lag between fertilizer shortage and food shortage. Fertilizer goes on in spring. Harvest happens in fall. Processing and distribution take more weeks. The damage from the spring fertilizer shock is already locked into the 2026 harvest. You will not see the full impact on grocery shelves until late 2026.
The USDA already projects fresh vegetable prices up 7.7 percent in 2026. The USDA projections were made before the full fertilizer impact hit. The FAO Director-General warned on May 7 that fertilizer scarcity will lead to lower yields and tightening food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Qu Dongyu said agriculture runs on a calendar that cannot be postponed. If fertilizer does not arrive on time, yields drop.
If you are reading this outside the United States, the same shock is reaching you from a different angle. In Europe, nitrogen fertilizer prices climbed alongside natural gas prices tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure. In Lower Saxony, Germany, the price of calcium ammonium nitrate rose about 15 percent in a single month this spring.
Asia is more exposed. India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh depend heavily on Gulf fertilizer and Gulf natural gas. Natural gas prices in Asia have roughly doubled since the war began.
Australia’s wheat harvest for the 2026-27 season is forecast at 29 million tonnes, down from 36 million tonnes the year before. That drop is tied partly to higher nitrogen fertilizer costs from the same conflict and partly to drought. New Zealand imports most of its urea from the Gulf, including more than 290,000 tonnes from Saudi Arabia in 2024. New Zealand is exposed on the import side and through its own gas-dependent fertilizer production.
The policy specifics in this piece are American. The underlying problem is not.
So what should you do.
Buy staple grains and legumes now while prices are still relatively stable. Rice, dried beans, lentils, oats, and flour store well and provide calories and protein. Do not hoard. Buy what you will actually use and rotate through it.
Stock up on frozen and canned vegetables. Fresh vegetable prices are already projected up 7.7 percent and the worst is not here yet.
If you eat beef, consider buying and freezing portions now. The cattle herd is under pressure from feed costs and processing concentration.
Keep two to four weeks of food in your home. Not a bunker. Just a buffer. The 2022 formula crisis showed that a single supply chain break can empty shelves in days. Multiple breaks at once will move faster.
Pay attention to local harvest reports in August and September. If corn and soybean yields fall below USDA projections, price spikes will follow within weeks.
Do not count on the government to fix this quickly. The Morocco tariff suspension is an eight-month bridge. The Strait of Hormuz is still being attacked. China is still blocking exports. Mosaic keeps cutting production. The United States has no strategic fertilizer reserves. The crop calendar does not wait for diplomacy.
The United States is not going to starve. The country grows more food than almost any nation on earth and holds grain reserves. But the system that moves food from field to shelf has no slack left. When multiple parts break at once, the breaks do not stay on the farm. The breaks show up at the checkout line.
Copyright © Mark A. Shryock. May be shared with attribution.
SOURCES
White House, Presidential Proclamation: Declaration of Emergency and Authorization for Temporary Duty Free Importation of Phosphate Fertilizer Morocco, June 29, 2026.
White House Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Declares an Emergency and Authorizes the Temporary Suspension of Certain Duties on Phosphate Fertilizer from Morocco, June 30, 2026.
Texas A&M University Agricultural and Food Policy Center, Increased Costs of Phosphate Fertilizers in the United States, January 2026.
USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Crop Production: June 2026.
USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 2026.
U.S. Drought Monitor, June 2026.
American Veterinary Medical Association, Avian influenza virus type A (H5N1) in U.S. dairy cattle, updated 2026.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Strait of Hormuz crisis: Fertilizer scarcity will affect next harvests and food supplies, FAO warns, May 7, 2026.
World Food Programme, Global disruptions to supply chains are driving tomorrow’s hunger crisis, March 31, 2026.
USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook, June 2026.
Farm Action, Agricultural System Concentration Data, August 2024.
USDA, The Impact of Coronavirus COVID-19 on US Meat and Livestock Markets, 2020.
FDA, The U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Long-Term National Strategy to Increase the Resiliency of the U.S. Infant Formula Market.
UN Trade and Development, From gas to grain: Fertilizer disruptions raise risks for food security and trade, March 30, 2026.
Euronews, Europe’s fertiliser crisis: prices surge due to Iran war and dependence on Russia, March 20, 2026.
International Food Policy Research Institute, The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production, 2026.
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Australia wheat production forecast, April 28, 2026.
BERL, A strait in crisis reveals our agricultural vulnerabilities, March 17, 2026.
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Worldwide global warming is a bigger threat to food supplies than our current fertilizer problem. There doesn’t appear to be any remedy for this threat and it seems to be accelerating.
Droughts followed by torrential rainfall wash away and destroy farmland around the world.
We depend on other countries for much of our food, so it’s not just paying attention to the US, but to the world’s weather.
It means grow it yourself.